CDC: Up to 34 Million Americans With Pandemic Flu

By bmartin on November 14, 2009 12:50 PM |

Using a model to account for the underascertainment of cases, the CDC now estimates that 14-34 million Americans were infected with the pandemic influenza virus between April and October 17, 2009. The Center previously estimated the number of US cases between April and July 23rd of this year at 1.8-5.7 million.

A breakdown by age (years) shows that pandemic flu has preferentially affected younger adults and children. (The graph provides midlevel estimates of cases [horizontal bars] and estimated ranges [vertical bars].)

H1N1_Case_Estimates_by_Age.pngThe same model was used by the CDC to estimate the number of pandemic flu hospitalizations at 63,000-153,000 and related deaths at 2500-6000 between April and October 17th. Again, an age breakdown reveals that disproportionate numbers of younger adults (and to a lesser extent, children) have been affected with severe pandemic flu.

H1N1_Hospitalizations_by_Age.png
H1N1_Deaths_by_Age.png

By using the CDC's midlevel estimates, the mortality rate of pandemic flu is 0.018%—which is consistent with the range of mortality rates provided by Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipstich (0.007%-0.045%).

One of the latest apparent victims of pandemic flu is University of Ottawa chemistry professor Keith Fagnou, 38, an otherwise healthy father of 3 children. Fagnou died of suspected H1N1 disease on November 11, 3 days after being hospitalized.

HT: In the Pipeline.

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